2007-07-28

A Bear Market

The recent market "corrections" in the last few days have obviously been concerning/exciting (depending upon your point of view), but is this a "bear market"?

According to that always-correct-fount-of-knowledge, Wikipedia, a bear market is broadly defined as when a key stock market index drops by 20% from a recent peak over a 12 month period.

If we just stick to the Wilshire 5000 (which I think is more useful as a sharemarket index than the Dow Jones Industrial Average), we have seen drop from a high of 15,700.95 (on 13 July 2007) to 14,710.78 (27 July 2007). This represents a drop of 6.31% - not a "bear market" yet, but certainly a correction.

So, by the broad definition of a 20% drop, the Wilshire needs to drop to 12,560.76 before we can "officially" call it a bear market.


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