A list of some of my predictions

At the risk of big-noting myself (fierté? moi? non! Allez manger un poisson avec une clé!), here's a list of some predictions that I got right... and a few a got wrong (The majority of my predictions have yet to be fulfilled):

• 20 September 2007: The US Dollar is very likely to continue dropping in value. Correct.
• 19 September 2007: Bernanke's continual interest rates cuts will result in a choice between growing inflation or raising rates during a recession. So far the choice seems to be inflation.
• 13 September 2007: A recession is coming and we may be in one already. A recession is still very likely but the US wasn't it one in September 2007 so I was wrong (though technically I said "may").
• 19 August 2007: My prediction that oil will reach $100. This got picked up over at Angry Bear and lots of discussion ensued. Although the prediction was open-ended, it eventually got fulfilled in the first week of 2008.
• 17 August 2007: Bernanke suddenly cuts rates and I predict that this is exactly the wrong thing to do. I also point out that cuts will precipitate a further devaluation of the dollar, which has happened.
• 25 July 2007: I predict that Share Markets are about to "plateau" out. This has been exactly what has happened. Compare the Wilshire 5000 graph in that posting to the most recent one. No bear market yet, but heading nowhere but down.
• 27 June 2007: I predict that a La Nina event is about to be announced. I was wrong, but La Nina was announced some time afterwards anyway. Besides, I think if the experts back-date it they'll agree that it had started by this time.
• 6 March 2007: Another La Nina prediction - that it will occur within the few months afterwards. Again, this was wrong on the timing but right because it eventually happened.
• 31 March 2006: A prediction that house prices in the US will fall. I have to give kudos to Kash over at Angry Bear for that one though, since his posting (linked in my article) pretty much said it all. And if people in the US had heeded this advice, they would have gotten out with their money intact, unlike now.
  
• 16 March 2006: A prediction that the Democrats would win the congressional elections. I also predicted the final amount of House of Rep seats but got it wrong by only 2 seats. My predictions for the senate seats were waaaaaay out.
• 28 January 2006: A prediction that a US recession was coming. "I actually do hope there will be an economic slowdown, a rise in unemployment and an increase in personal and corporate bankruptcies. Does this make me evil?"
• 25 October 2005. Dick Cheney will either resign or be impeached as a result of the Plame Affair, while George W. Bush may not be far behind. Well that one crashed and burned, mainly because I had too much faith in the US political system to actually DO something about the Bush administration. As it stands, neither Bush nor Cheney will be impeached, which shows just how cynical and debased US politics has become.
• 18 October 2005. My Harriet Miers prediction that came true within a month. This was picked up by Steve Gililard at the New Blog, one of the few lefty bloggers who posted my thoughts. Sadly, Steve died in June 2007.