2008-12-18

Yes... but

The falling dollar is good for manufacturers.

Yes. True. But.

The falling dollar is bad for consumers.

And.

The US Economy is geared towards consumption.

Which means.

Net short-medium term effects of a falling dollar will be bad.

But.

A low Dollar in the long term will help rebalance everything.

Including.

Moving America from being a consumer nation into a producer nation.

And.

Moving America from being a borrowing nation into a saving nation.

However.

America has been a consumer/borrower for about 25 years.

Which means.

The move to being a producer/saving nation will be painful.

And.

While America's trading partners (Japan and China mainly) will suffer less from this movement, they will still suffer.

Which means.

The rest of the world will recover sooner than America will.

Unless.

The Dollar drop bankrupts America.

And.

Who knows if that is a real possibility?

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