2010-10-14

GDP predictions for Q3 2010

Based upon my study of Real Interest Rates over the past three months (government bond rates minus inflation), I am making a judicious prediction of a number of countries.

Note: GDP measured here is change from the previous quarter in annualised form

Economies that were growing in Q2 and will grow faster in Q3
  • Australia: > + 4.9%
  • Canada: > +2.0%
  • China: Growth (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)
  • Euro Zone: > +3.9%
  • France: > +2.8%
  • Germany: > +9.0%
  • Japan: > +1.5%
  • South Korea: > +5.2%

Economies that are growing in Q3 at around the same rate as they were in Q2
  • Argentina: +12.3% steady
  • Britain: +4.7% steady
  • Italy: +1.8% steady
  • Mexico: +13.5% steady
  • New Zealand: 1.5% steady
  • Russia: Steady (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)
  • Spain: +0.7% steady
  • Sweden: +8.0% steady

Economies that were growing in Q2 but will begin to slow down in Q3
  • Brazil: < 5.1%
  • India: Less growth (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)Poland: Less Growth (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)
  • Switzerland: < +3.5%
  • Turkey: Less Growth (quarterly GDP figures not readily available)
  • USA: < +1.7%

Economies that were contracting in Q2 but will perform better in Q3
  • Ireland: > -4.8%

Economies that were contracting in Q2 and will be even worse in Q3
  • Greece: < -6.8%
  • Iceland: < -11.8%


If these predictions are correct then what we will experience in Q3 will be a broad and strong international recovery, especially in the Euro Zone, while the US grows only slowly.

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